This is a translation of the original article in Portuguese. Read the original (Português).
The Polisario Front has declared a general mobilization against Morocco, according to the Spanish newspaper La Vanguardia. The move heightens concern that the conflict over control of Western Sahara, one of Africa’s oldest territorial disputes, could escalate militarily.
Western Sahara is a territory on the Atlantic coast of North Africa that is contested by two sides. On one side is Morocco, which claims the region. On the other is the Polisario Front, a movement that advocates independence for the territory and confronts the Moroccan government.
General mobilization is a step that puts the movement on alert for confrontation. In practice, it signals that the dispute could leave the diplomatic arena and turn into a larger armed clash.
The announcement puts pressure on the neighboring countries. Algeria, the Polisario’s main ally, now faces the dilemma of whether or not to intervene in the conflict, according to La Vanguardia. Algerian involvement would change the nature of the crisis: what is today a confrontation between a state and an armed movement would directly involve two regional powers.
Mauritania, which borders the disputed territory, has already reacted. The Mauritanian government has asked residents to move away from the border region, a sign that neighboring countries are taking the risk of fighting seriously.
What happens in the Maghreb has effects beyond the region. An open conflict could affect gas supplies to Europe, trade and the migration routes that cross the Mediterranean. As a result, there is potential for an impact on international energy prices, which also reach Brazil, and on the stability of a strategic area between Africa and Europe.
Algeria’s decision on whether to get involved should be the next factor determining how far the crisis could go.
Reporting from La Vanguardia (p. 8, edição impressa).
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