El Niño sets heat record in the Pacific for 165 days and is expected to intensify

This is a translation of the original article in Portuguese. Read the original (Português).

El Niño, a phenomenon that emerged this summer, has recorded record water temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific for 165 consecutive days. This is what the American newspaper The Washington Post shows, according to which forecasts indicate it could surpass the record of November 2015 and reach unprecedented peaks by the end of the year, with climate effects expected to extend until 2027.

The impacts are already appearing in several parts of the planet. According to the Washington Post, there are floods in Ecuador and Chile, drought in Indonesia and a humanitarian crisis in Papua New Guinea. In the United States, the newspaper reports flooding in Florida and in the Four Corners region, as well as coastal flooding in California. Peru is recording heat records, and the Atlantic has fewer hurricanes.

For the coming months, the forecast is for extreme heat and humidity through January. About 2.7 billion people have at least a 10% chance of facing temperatures among the hottest 5% in the historical record for the season. The western United States, the Caribbean, Western Europe and parts of Asia are expected to suffer unusual heat.

Brazil appears among the areas at risk of above-normal rainfall, and the South of the country is included in that range. For readers in the region, this means heightened attention to episodes of heavy rain in the coming months.

The newspaper also describes a change in how the phenomenon is measured. Scientists have created an index adjusted for climate change, already adopted by the American agency NOAA and by bodies in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. It compares the warming of the central equatorial Pacific with the average of the tropical oceans, and not only with the region’s historical record. The difference between the traditional index and the new one is expected to reach about 0.7 degrees Celsius at the peak of El Niño.

The adjustment seeks to separate the effect of global warming from the effect of El Niño itself, which tends to affect harvests, food prices and power generation. On Brazilian territory, the phenomenon has already led the state of Ceará to declare an emergency.

With expectations that El Niño will gain strength by the end of the year and leave its mark until 2027, following the forecasts becomes more important for farmers, public managers and residents of areas prone to floods and droughts.

Reporting from The Washington Post (p. 36, caderno nacional: El Niño atinge recordes de temperatura do oceano e deve se intensificar), The Washington Post (p. 36, caderno nacional: Efeitos do El Niño já se espalham pelo planeta), The Washington Post (p. 36, caderno nacional: Novo índice ajusta efeito do aquecimento global sobre El Niño), The Washington Post (p. 36, Estados Unidos: Previsão de calor e umidade extremos até janeiro).