This is a translation of the original article in Portuguese. Read the original (Português).
Chicken and egg prices are expected to rise in Pernambuco in the coming months, according to a forecast from the Pernambuco Poultry Association, reported by the Brazilian newspaper Jornal do Commercio. The association attributes the increase to above-average heat expected through December, an effect of El Niño, and to uncertainty over the grain harvest.
Apac, the state agency for water and climate, projects above-average temperatures for the October-to-December period. The state has about 2,000 farms in operation, and Pernambuco’s poultry sector is one of those that feel intense heat periods most acutely.
According to the farmers, El Niño reaches the dinner plate by two routes. The first is heat at the farms, which affects the birds. The second is the cost of feed, made mainly from grain: when the harvest is uncertain, the price of this input tends to put pressure on the entire supply chain, from the farm to the supermarket.
For consumers, the impact will weigh on household budgets. Chicken and eggs are among the most affordable proteins on Brazilian tables and are often the alternative for families when beef becomes expensive. A rise in these items hits lower-income households hardest.
The weather phenomenon is also a concern abroad. The British newspaper The Daily Telegraph reported that epidemiologists see a risk of pandemic-scale mortality from the 2026-27 El Niño, which is forecast to be the most intense on record. A study from the University of Chicago cited by the newspaper estimates up to 451,000 excess heat-related deaths between June 2026 and February 2027, with Nigeria among the most affected countries.
According to the British report, the World Meteorological Organization said the last four years were the hottest on record.
The contrast shows two sides of the same phenomenon: while the international debate focuses on direct health risks, in Pernambuco the first effect felt by the population is expected to be on food prices. It remains to be seen whether the pressure will be repeated in other poultry hubs in the country, such as those in the South and Center-West, which depend on the same grain supply to feed their birds.
Reporting from Jornal do Commercio (p. 11, Recife (PE)), The Daily Telegraph (p. 15, Reino Unido).
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