Climate Losses Cost Brazil R$ 51.9 Billion in First Half, More Than All of 2025

This is a translation of the original article in Portuguese. Read the original (Português).

Extreme weather events caused losses of R$ 51.9 billion to Brazil in the first half of 2026, a figure that already exceeds the total recorded for all of 2025, according to the Brazilian newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo. The survey was conducted by the National Confederation of Insurance Companies (CNseg) and presented at the opening of COP31, the United Nations climate conference, held in Turkey.

Compared with the same period last year, the increase was 67.4%, reports the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. In the first six months of 2025, losses had totaled R$ 31 billion. The number of significant occurrences also grew, from 10 to 24.

Drought was the main driver of the bill. According to the newspapers Gazeta de S.Paulo and O Estado, droughts accounted for 93% of economic losses in the period. As a result, the countryside was the most affected sector: agriculture and livestock concentrated about 87.8% of the losses, according to the study.

The most striking figure in the survey concerns protection. Only 11.2% of losses were covered by insurance, according to O Estado de S. Paulo. In practice, almost nine out of every ten reais lost to climate events in the semester had no compensation to cushion the blow.

This means most of the damage falls on those who suffered it directly. In the case of agriculture, it is the farmer who absorbs the crop failure or the loss of livestock without replacement. When the impact is too large, the pressure falls on the public authorities, called upon to help municipalities and affected sectors, and can reach consumers through prices.

The choice of COP31 as the stage for the release is no accident. The conference brings governments together to negotiate targets for reducing emissions and adapting to climate change, and the CNseg study puts on the table a picture of how much the lack of preparation already costs the country. While Brazil debates the issue on the international stage, the bill for extreme events at home keeps growing at an accelerated pace.

The survey is part of the CNseg Radar, a periodic monitoring effort by the insurance sector on climate-related losses. The result for the semester, with more than twice as many significant events and losses greater than those of the entire previous year, reinforces the trend that climate disasters have become more frequent and more expensive for the Brazilian economy.

The low coverage rate also exposes a challenge for the insurance market itself and for public policies aimed at the countryside: expanding protection for those who lose the most to drought, who currently bear most of the risk alone.

Reporting from O Estado de S. Paulo (p. 15, edição nacional), Folha de S.Paulo (p. 26, edição nacional), Gazeta de S.Paulo (p. 19, edição nacional), O Estado (p. 10, edição nacional).