This is a translation of the original article in Portuguese. Read the original (Português).
The conflict with Iran has nearly doubled the price of gas on the European wholesale market since the start of the war, and the increase has already reached consumers’ wallets in Germany, according to the German magazine Stiftung Warentest Finanzen. Attacks on energy infrastructure and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a route for a significant share of the oil and gas from the Gulf, are at the root of the shock.
According to a survey by the German portal Verivox, cited by the magazine, new customers were paying an average of 12.52 euro cents per kilowatt-hour on October 8, 2026. In February, the price was just over 8 cents. In just a few months, then, the cost for those signing a new contract rose by about half.
The increase recorded in the autumn is likely to weigh even more now, with the arrival of winter, when gas consumption for home heating rises. For families, the effect is cumulative: higher tariffs applied precisely in the period of greatest use.
In Germany, changes in the wholesale market reach consumers’ bills relatively quickly, especially for those who switch suppliers or sign a new contract. For this reason, Stiftung Warentest Finanzen recommends that consumers review their current contract and, when choosing a new offer, favor tariffs with a price guarantee, which protect against further increases for a set period.
The impact goes beyond households. Germany is Europe’s largest industrial economy, and more expensive energy puts pressure on factory costs, consumer prices and companies’ capacity to invest. Because the country is an important trading partner of Brazil, a German industry under pressure could affect exports, imports and investment projects involving Brazilian companies.
In Brazil, the path from the international market to the consumer’s bill is different. Fuel and gas prices are subject to Petrobras’s policy, and energy tariffs are set by regulatory rules and may involve subsidies, which tend to cushion or delay the pass-through of external shocks. In Germany, the consumer is more exposed to market swings.
As long as the blockade of Hormuz and the attacks on energy infrastructure continue, the European gas market is likely to remain under pressure, with effects on the winter bills of German families.
Reporting from Stiftung Warentest Finanzen (p. 56, Alemanha (com dados do portal Verivox)).
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